Lesson # 43: to follow up/illustrate, from my educational stocks given, in, my posts here # 372, 406, 408, 417, etc.
* first, as you know, gave many extended Energy/Oil.Svcs. (RON, UTI., WII., HAL, others, etc.) as puttables real well, for you here, just as Wall St. loved them at the top, right ? ....second, was wrong (early) with some Drug and Bank issues for Puts....third, recently was right after all, with extended Banks, and some Insur. issues, which have indeed fallen and formed umbrella tops (though most are now already down)....I gave you WAMU, TROW, FITB, SPC, AIG, AGC, IMP, USB, BBI., near their tops, worked, and was early with FTEN, NTRS, TCB, which lost....view their charts to "see" the pattern....this, is why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options !!!! (and diversify always)
* among others specifically given, to educate you, SCTC, CTXS, MTSC, DANB, SEIC, WFMI, SFSK, SEPR, TWX, VSIO, CATP, AOL, SLVN, IMIC, AVEI., CZT, DOW, MCK, CNG, FON, KMT, BLS, CAH, BMY, FMO, CNS, ICN, CLX, ACX, RHI., ER, K., have all been working out, and/or are still puttable, near their highs ONLY, L.T.;, in-the- money ONLY, where suitable, it would seem....view their chart to see the pattern....but, IFSIA, MERQ, LEN, DIS, broke out, and did not work, for quick small Puts losses
if done....see them ?
* the Airlines and Telecom/Bells, still shaping up, but not yet exploited....and, just missed the Brokers, as Puts recently...and, Real Estate, Railroads, even utilities may be topping here ?
see their pot. S.T. top formations ?
* the Lesson: continuing rotation is normal, with depressed Techs and Metals bottoming ? while most everything else topping in various stages ? once again, "PSYCLE sm" traders do NOT "scenarioize" nor do we "link" news/financial items, to potential stock price moves.... note, the banks formed rolling, umbrella tops, while, for instance, the Energies had umbrellas, and the Oil Svc. issues (and, now, maybe, the Bells ?) had shorter-term tops, see them ?
* fundamentals do not work.....in either direction....at least not directly enuf to try to employ in timing....I mean, banks and oil. svcs. co's. earnings are still rising, right ? but their stocks are falling, some a lot....right ? interest rates fell, yet so did many Financial issues....hey, that's one of the secrets.... most people fight the facts, which is why so few of us excel at this. STOP LINKING
* again, the recent "Asian" crisis, is, and will evolve, pretty much as all other crises have ever done, i.e., the Mexico, Japan, Middle East, Canadian, Silicon, etc., issues bottomed and rose anew....
right ? just wait for normal exhaustion bottoms to form....then apply my "PSYCLE sm"....just the opposite for Puts...the "formations" are the main key....learn the "sequential stages"....remember, I cannot be responsible in any way, for anyone's specific experiences with my shared output herein....just trying to help/teach nice people....there are no overnite, magic bullets...till next time, study up, spread the word, and be careful, out there....
* P.S., remember, initial downside support on puttables, is at either the previous resistance broken out above earlier, and/or, the still-rising, 200 day MA, most of the time....no greed, no emotion. |
