So the call revealed the late year transition to Agile plans was hurtful to growth. Vsat units were down. This was reflected in the conversations we were having here about the late arrival of HTS. Clearly, HTS is turning that around, in a very big way, with 30-40% unit growth. The delay of HTS pushed out real exciting growth to the 2nd half of this year but it’s real this time. No illusion of a TacNav contract that might never materialize. I’m happy to see someone point out that the drag won’t just be on vsat hardware but content, as well. This is ok, as long as unit numbers accelerate. All indications are that this is happening, in a very big way.
It’s been frustrating to see incrementalism over the last year, knowing it would impact unit sales at the start and delay a return to revenue growth. Finally, something to get excited over. With new products coming, this acceleration should continue for a solid 2 years. If they eventually offer smaller products that allows them to enter new markets, it will continue much longer.
TacNav now has the potential of providing upside surprise, rather than the absolute disappointment it’s been.
We should be hearing more excitement, every quarter, throughout the year.
In my analysis, I think vsat unit growth expectations have a chance of accelerating past 50% towards the end of the year.
Things are looking up, for the first time in a very long time.
Aw |
