Re: Dermira's lebrikizumab. Well, it's still in P2 for dose optimization, and the only indication they are officially targeting is atopic dermatitis. While it could, indeed, be a better dupi, is that enough, given competition from AbbVie's oral JAK2 program in the indication that has shown well so far, and Amgen/AZ's tezepelumab? Both appear to be a bit ahead of lebrikizumab. I haven't tried to actually compare data on these four programs (and there must be others). As a Regeneron shareholder famous for deep DD, I'm sure you know more than I do. I'm dubious that it can get to market fourth and take share significant enough to be worth the cost, but that's a superficial view.
I made two mistakes here with the acne drug. While many aspects of the trial design looked solid (continuity of FDA acceptable P2 endpoints, sufficient power, same treatment duration, etc.), and the MOA made sense, they did reduce the dose a bit from P2. I rationalized they still had decent odds of success despite that because the separation in curves suggested it. In hindsight, bad idea.
Mistake #2. Since I last posted about my position as being a bullish put spread, I tried to take advantage of share price slippage by selling the bought puts, hoping to buy them back lower. But the stock never bounced enough to give me a better price before the data came out, so today I was naked long. Not a huge position, but ouch. I remember trying something like that years ago, with similar results. Need to stop trying to pick up dimes in front of bulldozers.
I also own PRTK, which doesn't seem to be benefitting from the failure of this competitor today. Market expectations are low for sarecycline, possibly a cost benefit issue. Insurers do cover oral antibiotics for this indication, but they're generic.
Cheers, Tuck
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