Alys, this will be controversial to about three people so let's just call it my opinion.
I think the reason for the selloff by common shareholders is fear of other's selling. The catalyst is the entity who stands to gain the most. There has been a persistent, consistent shorting of the stock since at least three dollars. Remember my post about Herzog's 'not held' order, or seemingly inexhaustible selling? He's been on the offer ever since, usually with his shill 3 cents ahead for 5,000 shares.
The only position I know of with the weight and agenda to do this would be the S-3 holders (whom we erroneously call the Reg D clan). Up until February 27 they can convert at the average of 5 days trading, which they may have to do to cover their shorts. I don't know if the S-3, which is preferred stock that can be converted to common, can be used to collateralize a short. It is in the S-3 owners' best interest to drive TCLN as low as possible to get the best conversion rate. Of course there is a threshold at which it is no longer worthwhile for them to sell stock (short and convert) because they will no longer be able to capitalize on the upside. This will happen when the bid becomes an immovable object, a market moving event occurs or it's March 28. From 2-27 until 3-27 the average close becomes the conversion price, less discount, at which the S-3 holders can convert for five years. On March 28 the S-3 holders become TCLN's greatest advocates. This is why I claim that now is our best buying opportunity.
It's unfortunate that a string of events has played into the hands of the S-3 holders, perhaps mismanagement or lack of Wall Street panache/saleability or even negative postings here and on aol.
Several market moving events, however, are expected. There's a new sheriff, uh CEO, expected in town, and a Phase III, and at least one Phase I, and licensing deals around the world. Day One of the board meeting is Tuesday, btw.
Shero, before you start defending Darth remember that he claims to have put the S-3 deal together. How could he not know? At least on the bb's Darth and aol's Argo 28 are neck and neck for S-3 MVP. More useful to us peons (don't take the phrase literally) would be if you could give us a legal opinion as to whether or not one S-3 holder in cahoots with another on the short-selling side
is a conspiracy? It certainly isn't ethical but is it legal?
Any thoughts WE89, anyone?
Maybe this is a moot opinion, for the first time since $3 Herzog has moved to the bid. |
