richard,
While there is life there is hope, but the jury is still out on whether DepoCyt will be approved and what kind of market it will have if it is. Judging from the recent weakness in many biotech companies, I suspect DEPO may mirror that weakness and not move up much without some positive news. The problem at this point is determining whether the side effects profile will be negative enough that more numbers will be insufficient to get approval. Alternatively, if DEPO can simply add results from its continuing clinicals and come up with adequate numbers to demonstrate a net positive benefit and make their case for steroids to control the arachnoiditis, maybe it will get a second chance.
Meanwhile, we may have to survive some short term negatives. It isn't clear what the company's burn rate will look like without DepoCyt revenues after they go through their economizing and scaling back. If it remains high, the stock may sell off on thoughts that existing cash may not last them through clinical development and approval of DepoMorphine, and they are currently not in a great position to raise additional capital. There is also the spectre of a lawsuit, which might further depress things.
Potential good news might be a dynamite partnership announcement for DepoMorphine -- probably not likely until after mid-year when the next clinical results are announced. There is also the possibility of an out-of-the-blue announcement for some new product, a buyout, etc.
Without strong market support or a January effect lift, I'm less optimistic about the near-term prospects and suspect it may take awhile for good news to work its way into a higher stock price. Meantime, I think it may be vulnerable to general market weakness as a candidate for selling. If it does sell off, it may offer a great buy. Until then, I'm afraid it may continue to be seen as a goodbye.
Good luck to all,
Baird |
