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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 253.46+2.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (14518)1/12/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: Big Bucks  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Gene,
It appears that Europe is starting to stir, several links have been
posted concerning new fabs and technology investment in Europe. The
downside is that several large fabs that were to be joint funded
by the Koreans have been delayed and may be cancelled. There are
some US companies like AMD and I think MOT and ATML doing joint
venture fabs there in Germany and France. The current fabs in
Scotland, Ireland, England and Germany are becoming a bit outdated
and will need to upgrade to 0.25uM within 1-2 years, if not sooner.

I could see 75c by Oct '99, driven by new technology advances that
leading edge fabs will need by next year to improve yields and
increase production cabability. Sub 0.25uM (0.18uM to 0.13uM) and
300mm toolsets will be production worthy by mid-late '99 and the
investment in new fabs in Taiwan, Japan and the US and Europe will
require new 300mm toolsets by 2001-2002.

Barring a world wide recession/depression I could see AMAT at $80
by 2000 and $120 by 2002 without adjusting for any stock split that
may occur. This is hard to project, but AMAT management has targeted
to have $10B in sales by 2001, where does that put the price of the
stock. Based on current numbers that will make the current shares
worth at least $100-120, IMHO.

Regards,
BB
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