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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (770)3/10/2018 2:07:51 AM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 1504
 
I agree to expect some major shock perhaps China related Others relate to the massive housing bubbles in all our gateway cities and the overbuilding going on high end condo and apartment market is beyond any prior peak (look at charts of major Canadian banks for clues??) Also corporate debt and consumer nonmortgage debt quite high major concerns. Still the biggest to me are total mortgage debt outstanding (no growth for 11 years), months of single family home inventory (lowest on record while new home construction continues to lag) the still steep yield curve and oil prices at lower end of range are flashing potential to continue nice recent growth in the economy for a few more years. So a 1998 or 1987 shock later this year or next is highly likely as yield curve flattens some more.

Guessing when millenials get leveraged into housing (with much more of it new homes like 1985-88, 1997-2000 and 2003-06 periods) in a big way, gas prices average closer to $4 and yield curve flattens out perhaps in the 4%+ range for a year will also be looking at over six months of single family home inventory and end of the 17-18 year RE cycle. This will be the real end probably leading to a decade or longer of secular stagnation and no growth at best with crushing public/private debts unwinding.. Just not sure if we get some weaker corporate lead recession first which would lessen the blow of the big one down the road all IMHO of course
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