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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (7756)1/12/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (4) of 95453
 
Dave -- I know more about the offshore RIG business than about the oil business. Yes there are lots of reserves and exotic techniques that are available to suck 'em dry. And when the price goes up these methods become more viable.

Really the only insiders that matter are the execs at Exxon and other oil companies that set the budgets. If you knew what Mr. Exxon was thinking about the price of oil, then you would have some worthwhile info. Anyone else's opinion don't mean a hill of beans.

Back in the 80's when oil was going up up up, you could read stories everywhere about how it was going to hit a hundred bucks a barrel...and more. Writers like to write and bad news makes good headlines. (High prices are bad news for consumers.)

As I have said before, no one knows. And even if they knew it doesn't matter. All that matters to us is what Mr. Exxon thinks. That's because HE is the one spending the do re mi. If he thinks oil is going to $30 then it is as good as there 'cause he will spend money like it's going there. See what I mean? (And in fact he is spending his money at an adequate and bountiful pace right now!)

The lead time is huge on these oil plays -- especially in deep water. We are in the midst of a stock market freak storm...nothing more nothing less. Oil doesn't have anything to do with it. Oil is just the whipping boy, or an excuse for the storm.

Oil is perhaps the most misunderstood commodity in the world. Folks in Texas love it, folks in California hate it -- but they sure like to burn it -- folks in Alaska like it when it pays those annual checks, but hate it if there is an accident.

You never see the government paying oil companies not to drill for oil like they pay farmers not to plant crops. You never see actresses singing the blues of the oil industry that was destroyed in the 80's...but they will go to the end of the earth for the poor farmer or some fur bearing animal. (Most farmers are large corporations these days anyway.)

In short, everybody loves to hate oil, the oil business and anyone that exploits consumers by selling gasoline. (Which costs less per gallon than bottled water -- can you believe that WATER costs more than gasoline? I bet the water dude made a HUGE investment and took a HUGE capital risk to get that water filter in line to provide that water. Makes me want to puke.) Just let the price of gasoline go up a nickel and you hear the whiners come out in force and talk about the big conspiricy.

I better stop...I am really getting pissed off and I forgot what I am writing about.
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