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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (776)3/13/2018 10:57:40 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 1504
 
Blowoff top usually lasts a couple of years as the yield curve flattens witness 1997-99 and 2005-07.

I don't trust adjusted inflation numbers as they are flawed especially lately. For example in my world health care has tripled and rents are up 50% in five year yet fed never moved during the Obama years except one pathetic raise. Short term rates need to rise substantially percentage wise for curve to flatten. Of course that amounts to only another 4-5 quarter point rises by the fed. Saw lumber prices hit an all time high. Now if this starts happening with oil, steel and other commodities and fed needs to tighten quicker we blow off much quicker IMHO

Credit Markets Still Bullish As Virtuous Cycle Continues
seeitmarket.com

To me it is headwinds of reverse QT/rising fed funds rate, late cycle exhaustion, high costs of living most important big ticket items people need, high asset prices and high debt levels from too much fed intervention post 9/11 VS tailwinds in Trump era of fiscal stimulus, deregulation, manufacturing revival, new home construction, mortgage market animal spirits coming back, abundant energy sources keeping oil prices low and rising labor force participation
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