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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16304)	1/12/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) of 50167

Intraday opening break of 923 and test of 243 did come but a bounce off lows was excellent- 917 held on also 243 was not broken. ASEA gave a cue for SPA to take out 908 my critical level but no one was ready to take the bait. Tail was unable to wag the dog- As I expected DOW closing higher has impacted HSI and other ASEAN markets. China slippage of more than 5% is quite disturbing and I have been pointing this possibility since last few days- this is not good for the region Chinese markets instability is not yet fully factored and priced by the fund managers- jitters in China a continuing slow down will affect HSI- I would like to see HSI above 9000- my target is that if we take out 955 on SPA and world equity crash becomes a history like so many times before we may see HSI rebounding- MOT earnings does provide a silver lining to dark clouds- forward projections are not as gloomy as whispers were making Fund Managers to believe- hedge funds have prosepered and I seeTigers assets at 15 billion$ Sloane Robinson is also up by 67% the real victims of ASEA crisis were the unit trusts and not the hedge funds- anyone who could have shorted these movements must have closed year very positively aas the ability to short the index and the stocks is not something which a unit trust can do. If this is so somewhere these hedge funds loaded will cash will enter the market big- it is on this account I yesterday wrote that reversal is going to be sharp now if you look at SPA we have another confirmed test of lows at 917 although shy of our 908 level but we had a full 26 point move in SPA from lows to high. I expect at certain level we will see some activity of hedge funds putting on new money where I would think we have this window of opportunity by Friday I think the trend of US will be clearly known in next 72 hours either we take out 955 by tomorrow evening or we go back to 908- my bet is that 955 resistance is doable and my trade would be to intiate long positions once 262 on SOX is taken out - The reversal yesterday is sign of strength at supports however we need to get some good numbers to get things moving I see some weakness in bonds that is and was my first condition of seeing some movement in the equity market keep looking at the signs of bonds weakness if you see bonds lower to 122,14 you will also see rally all around- I am positive on INTC and as such expecting a number above 93- a number below that will be below whisper and take INTC down to 69 level even lower if forecasts are poor but I believe that we will certainly see some good news on product rotation and high end P making some good inroads. ASEA was bound to go higher but I have reasons laid out above that once my upper resistance is taken out we move higher much faster but I will look for resistances to be taken out- I still fail to make a move based on individual US charts and I think we need to corelate our read of the markets- individual charts are becoming irrelevant as most pessimistic configurations bring a rebound- at 917 yesterday SOX was at 243 once it was unable to take out that level and INTC went to unchange we pulled the trigger on our shorts at around 924-26 level we got a fill on our shorts at 371/2 market order but covering 940's Febs was decision taken on corelational moves on SPA alone one could not have taken such a decision - one other thing I watch is JPN futures I look at premiums and discounts of these futures to the cash settlement one reason I pulled the trigger on my shorts was I saw a 100 point discount turning to a 60 point discount now this indicated a shift in market sentiment- I knew that DoW is not ready to follow suit- Now- markets will trade between 932 and 955 I don't think we will take out 955 before tomorrow nor shall we break 932- I am expecting a good run on SOX the configuration tells me that a third test of my 243 level was nice and for me I see this configuration as a move which I have seen earlier 960 back to 910 and bounce to 992- I will expect that once all this life saving packages are in place and Japanese banks rumours of higher losses are discounted since no one seems to talk about Japanese banks hidden profits on bonds- people who have been telling us 'big Japanese sell off' TB's to recover Balance Sheet adequacy ratios are now failing to see that those assets which were expected to be sold are now backbone of strength for Japanses finacial institutions- we had on this thread a lot of discussion with people who raised this specter back in June and July but I see Japan underlying strength with new bond strength I see hedge funds looking for opportunity and all this will depend on how earnings unfold for me DJIA will not disappoint= if fundmental big names meet or beat expectations and SPA rebounds watch out this SPA at 946 has already tech stocks corrected by 40 % lets add another 10 % on Techs but pessimism around banks and other depressed stocks once cleared will and can take SPA much higher. Levels to watch- 908 and 923 932- on SPA supports Resistances- 949 955 962 on SPA SOX 243 solid support a close below it and you short this darn thing along with SPA for a three to four days of soft market. SOX resistance 255 262 and 267 275- I will look for longing SOX above 262 for a trade which may take me to 290 area. I will be looking to short the bond below 128,14 I will look to go long Nekkei above 15200 along with HSI buy signal at a close above 9000. I will change my entire strategy to a near term bearish if-- let me tell you this thing tomorrow- food for some thought?

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