Earlie, you write with eloquence but I see a significant paucity of substance that reflects reality (g). Here are some specifics:
>> MU's "contract prices" are a joke. The spot price is the contract
>> price, when the contract is of short duration. You are deluding
>> yourself if you think that MU's ASP's are currently "well above"
>> the spot price.
While the contract prices some times have come down in tandem with spot prices, typically contract prices have stayed above the spot. Depends on whom you choose to believe, steve appleton or skeeter. IF you go back the last three quarters and examine ASP visavis spot prices, during the quarter, you will see a 20-30 percent difference.
It is a well known fact that MU enters each generation late, since they have publicly acknowledged that they cannot see business sense in crossing over when the market has not. However, your assertions about MU not being able to compete with big Asian players (such as Samsung, Hyundai etc) when it comes to costs in 64 Mb seems to point to a need to substantiate your bearish stance based on wishful thinking rather than fact-based analysis.
Ultimately, whether any one accepts it or not, Micron is a low cost producer which has time and again shown the ability to stay afloat in a brutally bruising over supply situation. Now that the day of reckoning for the reckless ways of the Asian bib boys (well, they cannot run profitable businesses without assistance from large international donations) is here, I cannot comprehend the bears' inability to see the silver lining in micron's future.
Best Regards,
Sridhar |
