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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 120.00

+2.0%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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From: Rarebird	4/2/2018 8:07:22 AM
	Read Replies (2) of 116822

For a bull move to start, gold needs to start breaking resistances. For starters that's $1360. The Miners retreated from resistance at their 200 DAY EMA last week. If the equity market is going to rebound with bond yields falling, that will not be good for gold. In such a scenario, gold could temporarily break the $1300 level and fall all the way to $1265 before a bull market got started. This is not just your ordinary bear market; it is a mega bear market in gold. The low has been hit in this cycle during 1/16. A very strong rally resulted and most of the gains have been given back. This is the same pattern the home builders went through a decade ago. It took about 2 years and 8 months from the cycle low to get a genuine bull started. For Gold that translates into 9/18, give or take a month, as the start of the next genuine bull market. Risk/reward is highly skewed toward reward. If I have to suffer for 6 months, I will. I have no idea what caused the current decline in the futures this morning or the rise in gold/silver futures outside of some Trump comments cancelling NAFTA again. One would think the USD would rise given the projected raises in Fed Funds, but talk of cancelling NAFTA and trade tensions puts pressure on the USD. DSI for SPY is 16% bulls whereas for gold it is 67%.

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