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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.46

-3.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Lucretius who wrote (11539)	1/13/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Lucretius, I agree with you in that airing one's position is needless. Hey, we agree on something!!! We now have a foundation for a mutual understanding!!! As far as one of us longs providing you with some conviction that this security will increase in value: I think many of us have provided you with solid fundamental business reasons as to why we feel this way. However, I think you're more focused the technical analysis. Now, I'm not an expert in this area, so I'll ask the question: Do all stocks behave in accordance with these analytical analyses? I suspect not, otherwise that's the only thing we'd all look at to trade with. This being the case there must be other attributes which affect a stock price other than expectations set by those that follow things like DMA and Bollinger Bands. My guess is things such as earnings, market share, future growth expectations all have an effect on stock price. (Interesting concept 'eh.) I should go on to point out that the Cisco stock price is a bit sold off right now - not due to company specific issues - but due to the expectation that this "Asian Crisis" (as it's been dubbed) will affect earnings. SO, if this crisis doesn't materially affect earnings come Feb 3 then my guess is the stock rebounds to trade at it's all time high...from there I see more growth as the Asian issue loses steam. This is the reason I think shorting is dangerous. Looking to technical analysis right now when it's influenced by outside issues which in reality may have no material effect on stock price is questionable IMO. We will see the beginings of the affect this Asian Crisis has on the tech's this week. So far, the vote looks to be - NOT MUCH. For those of us invested in the tech sector let's hope this good news stays good news throughout earnings season. Again, this all brings to mind my earlier comments to you. That is, what are your reasons for shorting? You're telling me (and everyone else) its the Bollinger Band and DMA that you're watching. If that's it then .... see you at 60+! ;-) Gary

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