What's in Store:
More of everything -- and most of it cheaper
By Charles Bickers
01/15/98
Far Eastern Economic Review
Page 42
(Copyright (c) 1998, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
What's new for 1998? Faster chips, more memory, smaller packages will remain the mantra of personal computing. But there will be significant new developments, notably Microsoft's upgraded PC operating system and a new disk format that could replace CD-ROMs.
Of course, you can expect to compute faster. By year's end, chip makers expect to be marketing processors that run at 450 megahertz, compared with the current high of 300 and the relatively sedate 120 that PCs averaged a year ago.
That's great, but if the computer you buy today is going to be obsolete in speed terms before you even plug in your modem, why pay top dollar for it? Little wonder American buyers snapped up discounted PCs of mid-range performance over the holiday season.
They did so thanks mostly to U.S. manufacturer Compaq, the first to brake ranks and offer sub-$1,000 PCs. Prices in Asia haven't dipped quite so low for big-name brands, but they're getting close. In Hong Kong you can buy a name-brand 200-megahertz PC with a fast CD-ROM drive, multimedia upgrades, modem and screen for around $1,200.
With economic slowdowns looming over much of Asia, it will take a cut in prices to keep the region's consumers buying. If the United States is any guide, prices on low-end models are set to fall. Compaq is leading the way here, too, offering a competitively specified computer (without monitor) for $699.
Fast processing and plenty of memory will certainly be necessary for 1998's big personal-computing launch, Microsoft's Windows 98, an upgrade of its Windows 95 operating system. Microsoft expects the program to be out around mid-year; Windows 3.1 and Windows 95 users should be able to upgrade easily.
You can check out Windows 98 at the Microsoft Web site, www.microsoft.com. The new system is supposed to allow easier use of the Internet, although the launch version could change yet, depending on the outcome of Microsoft's anti-trust battle with the U.S. Justice Department, which claims the company's integration of browser software in its operating system is anti-competitive.
Whatever the final version looks like, it will be aimed squarely at home users. For starters, it accommodates new hardware such as the Universal Serial Bus -- which will make connecting hardware to your computer a lot easier -- and players of Digital Video Disks, or DVDs. It will also offer new power-saving and computer-control options that allow the PC to sleep rather than shut down, and wake up when the modem rings.
For the moment, however, Windows 98 still looks like an upgrade meant to get users onto the Internet more easily, but not too much more. Most home users employ all their existing software, including Internet browsers, quite well enough with current processors and operating systems.
In fact, the area most PC users want to see improved is in communicating with other computers-almost always over the Internet. Don't expect too much relief here during the year: Telephone lines can carry data only so fast. At the Internet service providers' end of the line, however, manufacturers are busily working to alleviate Internet logjams and make access to Web sites quicker.
Since electronic commerce over the Internet is taking off -- buying books over the Internet, for example, is a cinch these days -- ease of access is surely one of 1998's biggest challenges for companies trying to do business with the new technology.
The only Asian PC users likely to benefit significantly from increased connection speeds in 1998 are mobile-phone-equipped road warriors. By year's end many GSM-standard mobile networks will have introduced technology making data transmission through mobile modems up to five times faster than currently possible.
Elsewhere on the portable-computing scene, there is plenty of room for improvement in 1998. In general, notebook users can expect to have all the features of the desktop computer, including high-capacity disks to replace standard 3.5-inch floppies, and DVDs. Notebook screens are also getting better and cheaper, and new leaps in what's known as dual-scan screen technology could make more-expensive active-screen technology unnecessary for most people.
One big question -- and by no means one only for the PC industry: Will 1998 be the year of the DVD ? DVD technology is ideally suited to replace CD-ROMs, storing about six times as much information in the same-sized disk. In the future, recordable versions of the DVD , with their superior image and sound, should also make DVD players an ideal replacement for the VCR.
Industry watchers think DVD players will kick off on PCs, although it may be a slow start: The number of people already using CD-ROM drives (which can't read DVDs) ensures the CD-ROM will remain the driving force for software sales. But since DVD players can read CD-ROMs, there's no reason why they shouldn't catch on as a replacement in the long run.
Asia would certainly be a prime market for DVD players, especially for watching movies. Though the units sell for $600 and upwards, in many ways Asia is a more accommodating market than the U.S., where most technology trends originate. Video CDs are popular in Asia, as are laserdisks, despite little enthusiasm for them elsewhere. And many developing countries in Asia, especially China, as yet have no incumbent standard for watching home movies or for loading software. That should make DVD the prime contender to fill the gap.
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