Hi Allen,
I'm having difficulties finding time to post. Trying to release
my design and doing other stuff that's more fun than hanging around on
the internet! (If you can believe that... ;).
You said:
> Ken, there's one thing that bothers me about your conclusions about why the Zip
> can't become a standard.
> You keep acting like the price of the thing to a computer maker is going to be a
> constant over time. It isn't always going to cost an extra $55 to put a Zip in place of a
> floppy. As far as that goes, I'm not sure it costs that much more now. Where did you
> get your pricing for large quantities?
The real intent of my posts is to say that by the time the ZIP becomes
standard, the price of them will be so low (due to pricing pressures
from OEMs, etc..) that Iomega will barely make any money off the drives,
if at all. Margins will be killed. Let's call that point "1". But yes,
I do believe that it can become they standard.. but just think about
what that really means..
Point '2', I really and truly believe that DVD will overrun Jaz. I
have a close eye on the industry, and I can see what is happening
here. The biggest mistake that Iomega investors could make is to
ignore DVD. DO NOT IGNORE DVD!!! Keep a close watch on it. I'm not
kidding here guys..It does have a good 1-2 years to mature, but the
groundwork is being laid, just like the early days of CD ROM. Most
consumer products (VCRs, Cartridge games, computers, etc..) will be
using this technology, NOT JAZ! (This is only my opinion, from watching
the market trends...)
SO.... let's say points 1 & 2 are true. That means that Iomega is purely
a floppy disk company (down the road) How much of a market cap is this worth?
I don't know... But I also believe that all the big money has been made
in this stock. There are just too many shares. The thing that will keep
the stock price up is the shorts... thank them.
One thing to remember about the shorts.. They are almost always right,
it's just that their timing is almost always wrong...
About this point:
********
>>One other point. You say Iomega doesn't make any money from the Zips they sell to
OEMs. I don't think you're stating a fact, there, but a guess. And I honestly doubt that
it's true. Sure, they make less selling to an OEM, but why would you say they make
nothing? Are you guessing again?
********
This is only my opinion, and I stand by it. I took a drive completely
apart, and did my own costing of it. BUT YES.. I AM GUESSING.. But
it is a educated guess. (take it or leave it)
Good luck!!!
kp
Just want to leave all of you with this.. most of what I say is
just my opinion, just to get you guys thinking. Yes, I am a little
too carefull and analytical sometimes, but hey, it keeps me in the
ballgame.. |
