>If 132 gets accelerated approval, and the ASCENT trial shows confirmation of efficacy, what is the worst case scenario over the next 24 months for company valuation? <
From the R&D presentation dated January 18, 2017, revenue from 3rd line TNBC only for combined EU and US sales is $674M for 2019, $836M for 2020, and $1,085M for 2021. About 4% comes off the top for Royalty Pharma...leaving $647M for 2019, $802M for 2020, and $1041M for 2021.
Not really worst case, but let's say conservative IMHO assuming markets hold and 3rd line TNBC only absent any beneficial effect from anything else (e.g., 3rd line TNBC in a vacuum), by the end of 2020 somewhere between:
$25/shr (6*adjusted revenue after royalty/191M shares outstanding); and
$40/shr ($280 to $300M EBITA, 191M shares outstanding, and PE of about 25).
I believe Jeffries in their January 24th upgrade said upon AA approval (which Jefferies believe is 98% likely as I understand it), stock could trade as high as $27/shr. This is absent BTD in UC, or any deals or announcements for combination therapy, Asian rights, or any news regarding other indications, etc.
I personal am expecting/hoping IMMU to be trading in the low to mid 30's by the end of this year (2018)...if the markets hold!! And by the end of 2020 or 2021, the price to be silly if not already bought out by then, hopefully at a silly price. |
