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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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From: Sun Tzu	4/9/2018 1:46:58 PM
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In the last 500 years there were 16 times when emerging powers became as strong or stronger than existing dominant powers, and war resulted in 12 of them. In the other four, extraordinary steps were taken to prevent war. The war occurs because the rising power naturally wants to have increasing power, which the declining power naturally doesn’t want to give up, and there is plenty to argue about so there is typically a testing of each other’s powers...For good reasons, now and in the 1930-45 period, this cycle corresponds with the long-term debt cycle. Because both are long enough to typically come along only once in each person’s lifetime, they’re difficult to recognize while they are taking shape and they seem implausible. More here: linkedin.com

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