I went to both the LGND presentation, and the breakout session. Robinson had a lot of information to present, and it was like drinking from a fire hose trying to take it all in. The general theme, which he reiterated several times, was that LGND was on a "march to profitability". In his opening remarks, he stated that LGND will have profits in '99, and that he is more confident in making that statement than he has ever been before.
He described their business model as having two key profit center: (1) operating profit from LGND's own sales of products; and (2) royalty and milestone revenue from corporate alliances. LGND has seven products in Phase II and Phase III development, four of which wll take LGND to profitability in '99: (1) Panretin gel for KS, for which an NDA will be filed in 1Q '98; (2) Targretin oral for CTCL, for which an NDA will be filed in 2H '98; (3) Targretin gel for CTCL, for which an NDA will be filed in 2H '98; and (4) Panretin oral for KS, for which an NDA will be filed in '99.
Targeted product launches for these products:
Panretin gel, 1998, market share 3% growing to 20%;
Targetin oral, 1999, market share 3% growing to 20%;
Targretin gel, 1999, market share 4% growing to 16%; and
Panretin oral, 1999, market share 7% growing to 20%.
These four products, with these indications, should eventually generate $100-$200 million annual revenue. Initially, they should generate sales of $25-$50 million in the US and EU. These initial sales combined with expected milestone payments, will take LGND to profitability in'99. The Targretin milestone payments will be the "bridge to profitability in '99".
LGND has numerous early-stage clinical trials ongoing in cancer to try to expand the indications for these four and other drugs in development. If indications can be expanded to NSCLC, prostate, ovarian or breast, revenues from these four would go to $300-$500 million.
Balance sheet is strong. LGND's cash, plus cash from warrants, plus milestone payments will finance the company through profitability.
THE LEPTIN DEAL: "If we complete the deal with our current partner, it will be done this month. If we don't go withthis partner, it will take longer." |
