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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: jay silberman who wrote (241)9/30/1996 8:21:00 PM
From: wang   of 42804
 
In August issue of Individual investor magzine, page 37 analyst wrote:
MRVC.... Next year's expected earnings of $2.00 (before split).

Most of the time, the absolute number of earning estimates are off. However, the trend of earnings estimate is very often correct. I would not count for the earnings from aquisition yet, because (1) they are paid for already. MRVC did not lost $$$ of market cap after paying out cash is because investors expecting the aquisitoin will contribute to earnings; (2) Who knows how the aquisition will work out.

My understanding about earning cut is that the market for switchs are not growing as fast as the growing list of companies that making them. Generally, other companies can catch up with MRVC's technology within a quarter or so.

Although Barron is wrong on their description about MRVC, but their valuation has a point. I talked to an investment banker, he calls the number absurd (again he did not know the numbers are for MRVC).

I think that MRVC is fairly valued no matter how you see it. If the trends of earning as predicted by analysts are true, then there might be danger out there. Then again, some people may just enjoy trading stocks like MRVC. I do not think that this is a stock for everyone.

I like your comment very much. Thanks.

Wang
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