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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 113.78

-1.2%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (108648)	4/18/2018 7:43:43 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) of 116837

What I see here is a late cycle bull where commodities lead the way. Ultimately, higher rates and surging inflation destroys the bull. So, yes, QT and Fed tightening will most likely kill the bull. But we are not there yet. Rates will need to go considerably higher before the bull dies. My guess is 3.5% -3.75% on the 10 year and possibly 4%. I think we are in the 7th inning. By my estimation, that means at least another 600 -750 points on the S&P and possibly 900 points. I don't fundamentally disagree with you. When the fat lady sings, the market will fall anywhere from 30%-50%. It is where we are in the cycle that I beg to differ.

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