MetaCreations (MCRE) - Detailed Goo in a Soapy Dream Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MetaCreations (MCRE) - Detailed Goo in a Soapy Dream

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To: Shege Dambanza who wrote (506)	1/13/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) of 846

Shege: I have to dig into my memory, it's been a while since I was trolling the vc startup world. I'd bet larry ellison has reserved parking for his cars (and babes) perhaps under one of the glass towers. But companies with under $1 billion market cap, I seem to recall only one or two out of maybe 200 or so that I've visited with reserved parking. Red Brick rings a bell, I also remember someone in that complex driving a hummer. My key question for MCRE now is focused on the transition in the OEM business model. What % of oem deals have shifted from upfront to pay as you go? This transition could be terrific for managing expectations and generating predictable results. I'll keep you posted. The more work I do on the depth of technology and the upcoming product release cycle, the more I'm convinced there's a lot of long term value here. It could get recognized one of two ways - better management or a sale of the company. Risk reward seems compelling to me. I still think there's room for an ugly quarter or two - I never see a mess like this last only one quarter. My guess is the downside is in the $5 to $6 range (If they don't start losing money) and upside is $12 to $15 or even higher over time. (It seems the risk of actually losing money for an extended period is fairly modest. The company is investing huge dollars in R&D and S&M as a percentage of revenues -- lots of room for discretion. I also still think that the market they're targeting is a growth market. OTOH, is comeptition heating up and pricing pressure an issue?) The doubts are always the greatest before the upside hits. any thoughts on the competitve front out there? TD

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