Kentucky Derby is this weekend. Tough to get a feel for the horses this year (hot links below are to YouTube video of the races).
Kentucky Derby - Contenders
Justify looked good in Santa Anita Derby, but didn't have much competition until the stretch, when Bolt d'Oro tied to close, but just didn't have enough left in the tank. Still lots of question marks here. Only three races and won each of them (all on dirt tracks: 7 f, 1 mi & 1 1/8 mi). What happens if he falls behind early? Clearly if he gets out early he's a good candidate to win.
Santa Anita (Santa Anita is 1 1/8 mi. Kentucky Derby is 1 1/16 mi.):
Santa Anita
Bolt d'Oro has 3 wins and a 2nd and 3rd finish (all on dirt tracks). At the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1 1/16 mi) he finished 3rd behind Good Magic and Solomini. Definitely a horse to watch.
Good Magic is another horse to watch. Two wins (Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Blue Grass Stakes), two 2nd place finishes at shorter distances (lost to Firenze Fire at Chapagne - 1 mi) and a 3rd place finish (lost to Promises Fulfilled & Strike Power at Fountain of Youth - 1 1/16 mi)
Blue Grass (1 1/8 mi):
Blue Grass
Magnum Moon has run in and won 4 races, beating Solomini in two of those races. He looked impressive in the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby.
Arkansas Derby:
Arkansas Derby
Solomini has run in 6 races, placing 1st only once in a short 6 1/2 race, 2nd in 3 races including the Arkansas Derby and 3rd in 2 races. He lost to Magnum Moon twice, Good Magic once, and Bolt d'Oro once.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile featured 3 of these horses: Good Magic (1st), Solomini (2nd), Bolt d'Oro (3rd). Firenze Fire and Free Drop Billy are also in this race, and will be in the Kentucky Derby.
Breeders ‘Cup Juvenile (1 1/6 mi - same as the Kentucky Derby):
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
One final horse that caught my wife’s eye is Mendelssohn. He's been in 7 races, with four 1st, one 2nd and a 7th and 8th finish. Only one of those races, the UAE Derby was on dirt, the others were on turf or sand. He has not run in the U.S., but had a VERY impressive win at the UAE Derby
UAE Derby (a long race - 1 3/16 mi):
UAE Derby
So, you can see why this might be a tough one to handicap.
My favorites:
Mendelssohn
Justify
Magnum Moon
Bolt d'Oro
Good Magic
B.K. |
