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Politics : The Trump Presidency

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To: one_less who wrote (69917)	5/4/2018 6:05:33 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 363285

Your stats are about all ex-cons, over the whole US for a specific period of time. The stats I quoted where for those in prison for murder and then released, just in CA, over a different period of time. Its possible for them both to be true. Murders might reasonably have a lower recidivism rate because of long sentences, and because the initial murder might be a heat of the moment thing never to be repeated. That 49.3 percent was all rearrests. Not even convictions just arrested again. Those that were convicted were probably mostly convicted of parole violations. Those that were convicted on a separate new crime were probably not mostly convicted of murder. The percentage that murder again after serving a full prison sentance for murder is probably pretty low. The other link mentions 466 who killed again, but that's a really small percentage of all murders. It a higher percentage than the zero at my link (zero new murder convictions but from a smaller sample), but its a low percentage. Some more data - A 2002 study by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics tracking 272,000 inmates released in New York and 14 other states found that 1.2 percent of those freed after serving a murder sentence were rearrested on homicide charges within three years thecrimereport.org Its too bad they limited it to 3. The whole rest of their life might be too much (many of them are after all still living) but 8 or 10 or 15 or something would be useful. Still if its that low for 3 years I can't expect it to be really high for more years. The years right after they get out would be the most likely years for serious crimes. (Esp. considering that murder convictions tend to result in long sentences. If you killed someone at 25, then spent 25 in prison, then didn't kill anyone for the next 3, you would be 53 years old. People in their 50s and up are less likely to kill. --- All of that data is pretty incomplete anyway. I'd ask what you think the rate of remurder would be? And what's the significance of that rate in the context of question about defense. Lets say the rate was 10% (I don't think its that high but I'll go with that without other numbers either from some other study or just your guess). That's a serious risk, but do you really think that it would make shooting down the ex-con in cold blood a case of defense.

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