As to the trend I think it would be correct to say the percentage increase in the downward slope of that trend line has been higher during Trump's 16 months than during any similar period of Obama's tenure. Just eyeballing it. Possibly, at the very peak of the recovery there could be a similar change, but I couldn’t spot it without doing the arithmetic. At any rate, it is an impressive achievement.
As to how long before the economy is owned by a successor, I argued for years just as you are. In fact, I was taught it took 18 months typically for changes to filter down into the economy, but this is not consistent with what we see and claim today.
For example, Obama stimulus—the only action he really took—was enacted in his first month with the promise it would keep unemployment under 8.0 percent, which would have required SAME MONTH respone. Less than two years later, Romer announced that the job creation effects were over.
I think things move far more quickly today, for whatever reason. I would guess increased efficiency of operations but I really have no idea.
While I appreciate your hesitancy to credit Trump with accomplishments prematurely there are some things that are apparent. I can’t say the economic progress is, but I believe we’re close to it being apparent. North Korea is beyond apparent, it is in-your-face indisputable. There is simply zero question that this movement is a product of trump's presidency.
Shockingly, one of my far left Facebook friends made the similar claim you did today. I think that is going to be a difficult argument to sustain if this succeeds. |
