Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 250.23

-10.1%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: nonzeroa who wrote (2241)	1/13/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (2) of 9256

Re: Towel-Chucking; Overcapacity; Put Ideas Overcapacity never self-corrects. Factories don't go away--they get shut down for a while but any good news usually brings them right back. Witness DRAM. Any rebalance in the HDD sector has to come from demand imho imho imho. Win98/NT5 could help demand although I don't think it's the slam dunk that Win95 was. 2 cents by end of 98 is probably optimistic (or pessimistic if you're long. <g>) A confluence of many factors gang banged HDD pricing in 97--we probably will not see the same sigmas in 98. It's hard to say what's going on in terms of production costs but certainly most HDD shops are operating below average costs. I never buy into a big rally so I didn't cover. I did blow out another third of my entire portfolio, leaving me with a skeleton crew so to speak <g>. I'm going to interview some int'l economics professors and try to formulate a picture of what's going on in Asia and the probable scenarios there. I'll write up an article like before and y'all will be the first to know <g>. Don't fall into the trap of trading just because you CAN trade <g> Be like the Buffett, who on average makes one trade a YEAR. Put writing? That's a game I don't play -- and I worked in derivatives valuation for four years. The spreads are just too wide and the payoff patterns don't favor small players. PX

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