ReBrian,
What a time for the "Father of all Bulls" to be cautious
SF,
I'm not Bearish by any stretch of the imagination. It's just that many of these stocks, even with today's rally(including after-hours) are trading at 10-20% off of their lows. Lows which IMHO were of ridiculously low value. The SOX touched its 52 week low only yesterday and now we are going to the moon? Maybe I've been reading too many of Dave Dhillon's posts<G>, but at this point I'll believe the techs are going higher when I see it. There has been + news coming out of the tech sector but all we ever hear of are the eps shortfalls, push-outs etc. Need a change in SENTIMENT to make any kind of substantial move.
Re:I agree with BB, there will be a pullback at some time before March
I tend to think that we will languish w/o much of a rally so a sustained pullback IMO is really not likely at these levels. I think once we get through the 1st 2 qtrs. of 98, the street will calm down somewhat and look at the environment we are currently sitting in. Moderate growth with historically low interest rates and no signs of inflation and few, if any, signs of deflation. If the current environment remains intact for the next few months, IMO we are likely to see much higher prices on AMAT and others since this type of environment can support much higher valuations in the equities market.
Also, once we get into and past March, the market will start looking toward '99. Most of the equips should see incredible eps growth in the next few years and this will have to start to be discounted sometime this year. Many of these stocks are priced as if they are going out of business, the SOX is trading at '95 levels and we are nearly face-to-face with the deployment of 300mm...excuse me while I wipe the drool off my keyboard<G> All this being said, I see the possibility of new highs for AMAT by summer and near surety we will breach $65 by the end of the year.
regards,
Brian
DISCLAIMER: Over the past 3 months, I've been terribly wrong MUCH more than right ;-) |
