Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 225.18

-1.5%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14640)	1/13/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) of 70976

A crosspost from MEMC thread I thought may be of interest to fellow AMATers: <<<<< Well, the dust has settled a little and I have more to report on the industry conference. Where it had been anticipated 7 300mm pilot fabs would be online by year's end, it now seems certain only 3 will make it. Commercial production on 300mm now seems to be slipping into 2000 or 2001. Growth in the equipment segment is now expected to lag and 98 will be flat to slightly higher. Lithography and automation are the two areas expected to buck that trend, as more emphasis is placed on yield improvements and smaller line rules. AMAT and ASMLF will benefit, as will PRIA and ASYT. A sleeper is the step and scan lead that UTEK has as others try to overcome numberous development problems with synchronizing the wafer stage and reticle movements. One major trend unabated is the consolidation in the industry. It was estimated that the top 7 equipment companies now command 70% of the market. The outlook for small and mid cap "me-too" companies is grim. Critical mass for success in this business is now seen as around $500MM annual sales. Mergers and aquisitions will create opportunities for the astute. Everyone carefully hedged their statements predicated on the outcome of the disaster in Asia. No one expected the picture to clear significantly before April and warned of extreme choppiness in the market as investors react to negative news like stuck pigs. It's a good time for traders, and not a bad time for investors who are careful about fundamentals. >>>>>>

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