Tommaso, I would not worry about too much money form those markets coming here. First, not only are those markets down 50%, their currency is down 50% in many cases as well, so, if they liquidated everything it will be a drop in our "sea" of liquidity. Furthermore, if you are talking about foreign money now in Treasuries going into the stock market there are two major reasons not to "fear" such an evetuality. The money in treasuries is mostly in the hands of bodies that just cannot invest these funds in equity (pension funds, governments etc.). Last if massive desertion of treasuries were to occur, interest rates would jump up, making thestocks even less desirable.
I still see the 6200 looming there by mid year. At that point I think we might have had a relaxing move by the fed and long term bond at 5.5%, these two elements could provide the fuel necessary to power a strong bull move in the second half with 9000 in the sping of next year. That is the move I would recommend to our friendly bears not to miss.
Tek, I was right about MU, but as I said, there are cases when I just step aside.
Zeev |
