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How The Climate May Respond to Relatively Rapid Weakening of Both Heliosphere and Magnetosphere
A perspective I have yet to see expressed on the issue of the climate variability the Earth will experience as we forge into the Eddy Minimum.
I believe it possible to explain the cosmic ray/climate situation like a slinky.
There are TWO contributing factors to this. Magnetic fields deflect charged particles such as cosmic rays. BOTH the Earth and Sun are currently dropping in field strength relatively quite severely.
The connection between cosmic rays and climate is becoming quite well established, pushing aside the flimsy CO2 forcing models.
Cosmic ray levels having gone beyond human experience so fast, even before climate can catch up, is comparable to yanking on a Slinky sharply. (say THAT 3 times fast)  ;-)
Even if you stop yanking after 3 feet...the other end (climate response) will follow behind but on a lag and accelerate as it tries to catch up. Eventually reaching 3 feet relatively well after the "yank" stopped.
Equating one foot of the slinky to one year of climate response on Earth, we've had 8 feet of yanking but the yank will continue about 10 more feet over the next several years, as the Earth's magnetic field drops further...and faster.
Climate has only really just started moving more noticeably in its direction since that yank. We could say there was some time involved to get the climate end going in the opposite direction that it had been. That was what gave the "yank" more time to extend further in the current direction.
This year, with just SOLAR effects considered, as the chart shown predicts, there will be a 3X increase in climate variability over last year. The performance of the model in recent years previous can be seen as well as it's forecast going forward.
The spread between the red and blue lines represents magnitude of variability.
Chart source: nature.com
Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, E. Popova & S. I. Zharkov (open source)
I'm only going to assume that the combined effects of solar and terrestrial magnetic field loss simply add together mathematically...but they probably do so on a more geometric type scale.
Climate response speed will depend on any natural limit to how quickly a global climate CAN respond.
l.facebook.com
The model shows 2019 will bring an increase of 6X variability (which could be read as "volatility") over 2018 as per only solar influence. I assume the authors believe this to be possible.
So if climate CAN respond at that type of quickness, Id rather prepare for a 2018 Summer through Winter variability at 6X over last year from here out. Because the magnetosphere weakness is not represented in the model.
That would put 2019 and 20 and 21 at, "I don't even want to know" levels. 12X 16X more? What's the natural limit to the rate of climate response? I wouldn't want to underestimate it.
And it does appear that the volcano (magma) slinky has a higher tension because they're adjusting more rapidly than climate already. So expect about a dozen VEI 3s and a couple or 3 VEI 4s this year and next.
That nastiness in the air from multiple VEI 3s gives the climate end of that slinky a good shove so volcanoes could nearly double the above climate variability estimates rapidly.
The slinky has already been pulled beyond human experience if the magnetosphere measurements are correct. The other end (climate) may very well do so as well. You should expect it too. I've pored over everything I could find about the magnitude and speed of "the situation".
And I think that there hasn't been a consideration, by anyone, toward what I believe to be rapidity and severity of climate response synthesized in a way that considers:
1. The Earth's magnetic field strength drop is not only beyond the pale already, but continues to accelerate lower and is already WAY out ahead of climate response.
2. Incorporating consideration one (1.) with the additional effects of solar magnetic field weakness. There's talk about the combined effects going forward but they leave out lag already built into the system and where the magnetosphere start point was. It was about 10 years ago when a major re-re-acceleration of magnetic North was observed. The Sun was beginning it's last ramp up into a higher double peak during this so it provided cover for the acceleration of the magnetosphere's drop.
3. The lag time since the "yank" and how the system will surely respond like a slinky eventually accelerating faster than the yank...because the other end of a slinky WILL catch up even if you try to go faster at a certain point...It's a spring after all and response to tension will not allow acceleration of one end to perpetually outrace the other.
So that lag time is actually like an entirely separate, as yet unaccounted for, forcing mechanism.
This on top of the addition of just solar and Earth changes simply going forward from an, apparently assumed by all, to be a static start point each time period. The start point is actually dynamic as well because of the lag. Tension already built into the system means that the EFFECTIVE start point was shifted back...not now but then. Climate has only chipped away at that portion of tension. Almost all of it is still in the budget. Since I have likened the system response to a spring, it will only be "spent" each year on an inverse log scale until the other end of the slinky stops accelerating.
The carbon14 measurements are a proxy measure of cosmic ray intrusion into the Earth's atmosphere which indicates the combined strength of the magnetic fields protecting Earth. (both heliosphere and magnetosphere....cosmic rays don't differentiate among which weak supplier is which as far as the total. They take advantage regardless)
With magnetic field strength of the system due to BOTH weaknesses now fallen off a cliff, pace will be rapid.
The falling blue line to the far right, where it would be crossing down through 2018 measurements (the -10 level) is where climate SHOULD BE by now. It's not...so it's behind...so it has to catch up....so it will change FASTER to do so.
Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment during the Holocene and the past 50 kyr: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume 272, Issues 1–2, 30 July 2008, Pages 319-329
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