Sigmund, I am projecting .35 for Q1, which includes sales 24% higher than H1 1997, and earnings 52% higher than H1 1997. Conservatively, I figure that Q2 and Q3 each will be slightly better than Q1.
The new titles to be released in Q1 are Nitro, Ray Tracers and Broken Sword. Even if no new titles are released in Q2, it can still significantly top last year's Q2. We will likely see Quest 64 (or whatever it will be called) in Q2. Based on preliminary indications, that game may be more popular than WCW vs. NWO.
THQ's current 1998 lineup is sufficient, I believe, to significantly exceed 1997's results. In fact, I think that THQ's Q1, Q2, and Q3 in 1998 will meet or beat full-year 1997 results. However, the company will announce at least 2 more PSX and 3 more GB titles for 1998. Big games to look for in Q2 and Q3 include Quest 64, BASS Masters and Rugrats. Q4 should bring WCW Nitro for the N64, replacing NWO. If these titles become huge hits, THQI should report at least $2.00 for 1998.
Regarding my .70 estimate for Q4: It may be 2 cents too high, if only because I included FIFA 98 for GB and NBA Live 98 for SNES, although THQ delayed the release these games from Q4 to Q1. It's not a big deal, because I doubt the stock will tank if it reports $0.68 for Q4.
Todd |
