Sage Theraputic RG (SAGE) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sage Theraputic RG (SAGE)

SAGE 8.680

0.0%

Jul 31 5:00 PM EST

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From: Lynn	6/4/2018 2:53:18 PM
	of 16

Morgan Stanley Biotechnology [includes SAGE and a number of other companies, not included here] The Month Ahead 4 June 2018 Sage Therapeutics - SAGE217 PhIII Guidance - End of June : Mgt. has indicated that it would be able to provide guidance to investors on its PhIII program for SAGE217 in MDD by the end of 2Q. Expectation : Mgt. has indicated that data from the PhII program is sufficent to design the PhIII program. While mgt. has not given specific guidance on a study design, mgt. has indicated that the program is intended to demonstrate how a disease that is currently treated chronically can be treated acutely. The design of the brexanolone IV study for Postpartum Depression could be a good model. Further, an open-label retreatment study may be necessary to confirm the safety of the treatment regimen. Stock Impact : With a clean study design we would expect to see SAGE up 0-5%. If there is a material delay or other issue, we would expect SAGE down 10%+. [skip to p. 11] SAGE: Our $225 PT is derived from a DCF that uses a 10% discount rate and a 1.0% terminal growth rate beyond 2030E to value Sage's other neurology programs. We assume brexanolone is launched in 2019 for PPD. SAGE-217 provides bulk of valuation, with launches for MDD and bipoloar in 2021 and for insomnia in 2022. Risks to our price target include failure of brexanolone or SAGE-217 to receive regulatory approval, limited uptake of SAGE-217 due to generic competition and unexpected safety risks for SAGE- 217

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