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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: Tommaso who wrote (13087)1/14/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) of 18056
 
Tommaso, my signal to buy around the second week in August 1982 was a string of about 5 days without a single new high on the NYSE, I told myself how more contrarian one can be? I just do not see an "extreme" overvaluation either on PE as these relate to long term interest rates nor on the dividend fron if we take into account buy backs (take this little INTC, in the last 12 months they bought back more $3 billion of stock, that is probably the equivalent of $4 B in taxable dividends). I think that with the long term bond at 5.75% fair valuation of 7500 is reasonable. We could get a 15% undervaluation ( to 6000 or my target of 6200) as well as we could get a 15% overvaluation to 9000 (my target for next spring), and none of these will be particularly at the extreme, IMHO.

Zeev
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