I haven't read the statement yet, comb, but typically the first thing signed in a situation like this is a 'statement of agreement'. IOW, any negotiations to occur are preceded by a document signed by all relevant parties that simply states the parties have agreed to begin a series of negotiations in an effort to reach some kind of stated end goal. The end goal could be any number of things---a treaty, a truce, a realignment of borders, etc. In this case, denuclearization is the end goal.
The 'statement of agreement' document is typically lacking in details because, of course, it's the details that have yet to be worked out. So right now, all we have is an agreement between Kim and Trump to work toward a common goal.
The ball is now in Kim's court, and he will set the timetable. I don't even see much to negotiate over. Trump's offer is a straightforward one. Carrot and stick. If Kim wants the sanctions ended, he will denuclearize. If he denuclearizes and gets the sanctions lifted, he will be rewarded further by getting assistance to modernize. South Korea has already presented their plan to bring railroads, highways, and electrical plants to NK. Also, a huge factory park plan will be dusted off and reinstated.
Japan has made some kind of offer, but I forget the details.
My bet is that China's main role will be to guarantee Kim military protection and survival as NK leader. Kim has huge risks going forward. If he gives up too much too quickly, his country is open to military intervention. His own generals could stage a coup. Plus I've read there are NK oligarchs of a sort, like in Russia, that will try to corner the spoils for themselves. Add to this is the fact that NK, like Russia and China before, does not have the body of law in place re property rights, worker protection, and trade. This is why I say Kim will set the timetable, and he should be allowed to do so. We have nothing to lose in this deal, but Kim has everything to lose. The worst that can happen to the US is that the status quo is resumed.
Kim is surrounded by Asian 'tigers' and their dynamic prosperity. He inherited this mess of a country he's been tasked with to lead, and he's a young man. Will he pass up the opportunity to get out of the mess he inherited and bring prosperity to his people? Will he pass up the chance to go down in history as a great, transformational leader?
Trump has played Kim well, imo. He showed Kim his fancy, armor plated car. He gave Kim a video of the prosperity and recognition Kim could have. He offered Kim a visit to the White House.
I'm very optimistic right now, but I was already very hopeful. Months ago, I decided that the stars were lined up the right way for what seems to be happening to actually happen. The timing was right and the right people were in the wings. Kim made the mistake of lobbing a missile over Japan, and Trump moved in like a shark. Crippling sanctions and threats followed. Kim blew up four of the six tunnels that served as testing sites, and China is rumored to have finally withdrawn it's financial assistance. Everything fell into place.
Trump deserves most of the credit and recognition, for sure, but there were important roles well-played by the others in this saga. Maybe even Russia. Unmentioned is the fact that Russia seems to have stepped aside even though NK has been something of a client state for Russia. |
