It is a strange bird as most stocks are. Noone(but maybe Buffett, Warren that is) can tell where a stock will go.
Figure this: Estimates for the year were no better than $0.20, and estimates for stock price were $25 in 12 months. We are about to do at least $0.40 better than this quarter's expectations, which means eps for the year should jump to $0.60, a 200% increase. Does it follow then that: 1) 12 month target should triple to $75? 2) stock should be at least $25 now since year's estimates will be achieved/exceeded in first quarter?
Of course not. Right? So many other factors play a role in the numbers. Then why bother with eps, 12 month targets, and P/E ratios for predicting stock price. If you prescribe to those things, and the fact that turnarounds are possible, we should be at $25 today(or after announcement of earnings to be ABSOLUTELY certain)
Sputtering today, but AAPL has many ingredients for a slow rise(or fast) to higher stock prices. Remember, we are already up almost 50% in less than 10 trading days, so profit seekers will be present-I'd be taking some off the table with such great gains so fast. AND the market is down so far today.
You know, everyone is going to be ready to mark up the 10-Q when it comes out. The fact that analysts were so wrong about AAPL's earnings makes we wonder why we should listen to people like Ries who says AAPL won't grow revs for at least 3 years. What is this guy nuts? 3 years!! Come on. I think that some of these people should demonstrate a little more humility since they BLEW the estimates bigtime!!
Miller |
