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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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From: Sun Tzu	6/15/2018 10:09:33 AM
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Here's what Trump's supporters get right and what they get wrong... I wrote a response to an Atlantic article ( Trump Takes His Party Back to the 1920s) posted on another thread that I think will be helpful here. For those who have not read it, that article puts Trump's foreign policy perspective in a historical context of GOP conservatives. There was also another related article in the same issue that escapes me, but it basically said (and I agree) that Trump's foreign policy may not end with him. I started a full response to The Atlantic article, but then I realized that I am in almost perfect agreement with Iran Bremmer so I am going to highly recommend reading his books and articles. Here is the super condensed version. Globalism (as opposed to globalization) sucks. It enriches the multinational companies and makes America prone to sending the children of working class to far off lands to die while their parents' are hung to dry at home as their jobs ship to other far-off lands. The emphasis on sovereignty and "America First" is a shorthand for rejecting the globalism. Here's is what the Trump cam gets wrong - and the mistake is very deadly: (1) the number one factor as to how well you prosper has to do with the environment within which you operate. The average citizen in Norway has a much better life than the top warlords of Sierra Leon or South Sudan. This is true despite the fact that the typical citizen there has to pay high taxes and abide by numerous rules whereas the warlord can impose his will on anyone and do whatever he wants. So having the biggest guns and being able to bend others to your will does not lead to prosperity. In fact, evidence shows that it deteriorates your lot. This is the trap that conservatives are prone to fall into. Making the world a better place is highly self-beneficial. (2) The world is highly interdependent. Unlike past centuries (or even first half of 20th century) what happens in one part of the world can quickly affect other parts. A virus in Congo can fly to London and NY and kill thousands here. A financial crisis in Russia destroys jobs here in the US. A US housing bubble wreaks havoc around the world. And environmental catastrophes affect the whole world. US cannot protect itself unilaterally. There has to be global cooperation and leadership. None of the above means that the past policies should continue. I am fully in favor of US taking a more hands-off international policy and paying greater attention to the problems at home. That is not the same as being an isolationist. As Bremmer put it: "The developed world should neither shelter nor militarily destabilize authoritarian regimes—unless those regimes represent an imminent threat to the national security of other states. Developed states should instead work to create the conditions most favorable for a closed regime’s safe passage through the least stable segment of the J curve — however and whenever the slide toward instability comes. And developed states should minimize the risk these states pose the rest of the world as their transition toward modernity begins." ST

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