Stitch,
You said that Asian imports will become "staggeringly cheaper" in
the next few months.
I think that flat panel display production is primarily Asian, so
they would be an example of something becoming staggeringly cheaper.
Right now we are at a cusp in which desktop personal computers are
being replaced by laptops. Since flat panel display costs are one
of the largest components of laptop cost, a severe drop in their
price would greatly speed this transition. We are also entering a
time when desktop flat panels are becoming interesting, but still expensive. This trend will also speed up greatly if price
declines are rapid. This pattern would intersect with the imminent
proliferation of home devices, where light-weight low footprint devices are vital ( think of kitchen devices, screen phone and network
computers).
The idea is that macro forces jump start selected segments of the
market that are taking off because of their own development
curves.
I would also like to know if plasma display production is predominantly Asian, for similar reasons. Plasma displays in
the large tv size range are appearing in the $10,000 range, so
very large declines due to the Asian crisis would have a huge
impact on sales due to price elasticity at those levels. This
would intersect with the High Definition TV schedule, which has
broadcasts beginning at the end of this year in the top 10 US markets
and via DirecTV DBS.
Dave |
