Left Wing Democratic Porch Message Board

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Politics : Left Wing Democratic Porch

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1482)	6/19/2018 5:56:51 AM
From: RetiredNow	of 2202

Yes. I think it is. The only thing that keeps the air in the balloon is debt and more debt to drive ever smaller marginal growth. It's a losing battle by central bankers and fiscal profligates. Ultimately, the correction happens. Then from a smaller base, growth can begin again. I'm old enough to have seen cycles in everything in nature, business, and economics. What astounds me is how hard people try to disrupt those cycles, believing that they have found the magic formula. Today's nobel prize winning economists running the central banks of the world will tell you that their neo-Keynsianism is the holy grail of cycle busting cures. It is not. They just wind the spring tighter and tighter. Eventually, the spring will be sprung. The correction will come. I'm now fully out of the way of the oncoming collapse. I think right now, it is wiser to give up gains in order to live another day to be greedy and invest when everyone else is fearful. The only alternative I see is to trade the volatility like Rarebird does, but you have to be good at that sort of thing and have a constitution of steel. Statistically speaking, research has found that only 1% of traders have the personalities to be successful trading over time. I learned long ago that I'm not one of them, even though I am in Mensa and am very good at math and statistics. I get too emotional when I'm losing money. So for the last couple decades, I have become better at just getting out of the way until nature and the cycles take their course. I've also become better at recognizing the signs of fragility and increasing probability of a break down in long term business cycles. Anyway, I'm out now and will await the coming sale.

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