from SH
Fair Value Calculation
I encourage any current or prospective investor to learn and verify this easy valuation method. It doesn't include revenue from hardware, non-recurring revenue, nor tax carry-forwards.
I've stopped discounting revenue from signed contract patient populations due to the rapid onboarding rates going-forward.
| 61000 | Signed Patients | | $600.00 | USD Revenue Per Patient | | 0.8 | Gross Margin | | 1.3 | USD/CAD | | $38,064,000.00 | Gross Earnings (CAD) | | $5,000,000.00 | Corporate Expenses | | $33,064,000.00 | Net Earnings | | $24,136,720.00 | After 27% Tax | | $434,460,960.00 | 18x Earnings Valuation | | $8,000,000.00 | Cash on Hand | | $12,000,000.00 | Options / Warrant Proceeds | | $454,460,960.00 | FD Mcap | | $3.13 | FD Share Price (CAD) |
Assuming just 10% of the 500,000 patients in the prospective customer patient pipeline will be signed, and discounting that future revenue by 25% for time of onboarding, adds an incremental diluted SP value of $1.85...bringing the current fair value estimate to $4.98.
The model happens to show positive net profits at about 10,000 contracted patients.
Adjusting the model for less conservative P/E ratios and assumptions on sales pipeline conversion:
@20 P/E and 20% of Pipeline Converted = $7.88
@22 P/E and 30% of Pipeline Converted = $11.24
Using the initial, conservative metrics, converting 10,000 patients from the pipeline population to contracted status results in a $0.53 increase to current SP value.
Directly adding 10,000 contracted customers without reducing the pipeline population causes a $0.57 SP increase.
This approach is approximate with the "Six Cent Rule" discussed frequently on this board by others including Investor 22, whereby each 1,000 net new patients contracted should cause a $0.06 cent increase in share price.
Adding the full 500,000 patient pipeline leaves us with $28 shares and a quarter Billion in net earnings.
There are easily 30,000,000 potential use cases in the US alone; If RHT can capture just 5% of the market we would be looking at $81 shares.
Hard to imagine RHT staying at these levels for much longer.
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