I wasn't able to find the original WSJ column. However, Boucher voices some of the same concerns I have, only more loudly and more one-sidedly. While I am concerned about the rapid run up since the Motley Fool recommendation (an average +.90 per trading session) I'm not so quick to say it was ALL due to TMF. Just guessing, since I don't have the original text, but I assume Boucher didn't mention the fact that since Jan 5, there have been two upward estimate revisions for 4Q97 and two for FY98. Two of those revisions are, in fact, his very own. He revised 4Q97 up 100% from 0.04 to 0.08 and FY98 up 33% from 0.42 to 0.56.
Now I'll admit the price has probably gone up too quickly to accurately reflect real changes in the value of the stock, but the upgrades can't be discounted. And while the average "dumb money" may invest blindly in hot "hyped" stock without sufficient due diligence, I assure you that I look daily for estimate revisions and other pertinent news. Perhaps the Boucher statements will serve to shake out the dumb money and return TDFX closer to the level it should trade at, and keep the price action healthy rather than overextended.
Piranha |
