| | | The fundamental mistake the climate Alarmists made was to think that Earth is in Balance. In a facile way it sort of is, short term, But it's not and never was. It has always been on a one way course to Snowball Earth with just some volcanoes poking through.
Life was invented a billion years ago [near enough for government work] and since then has busily buried carbon,
CO2 levels had reduced over the last few hundred million years from 8000 parts per million to 280 parts per million. That's not enough to keep plants alive where water is in short supply. So deserts spread.
Apart from being unpleasant places to live unless funded by megatons of oil money so that Dubai could be built in a ridiculous place, deserts also reflect a lot of incoming sunlight. Ridiculous place to build a city unless you want a good place to put photovoltaics. When sunlight is reflected, lots of heat is lost and cooling turns to cold and to freezing.
The homeopathic amount of CO2 led to the ice age in which we still are.
It looks as though we could flip back into glaciation any time, such as in 2020 when the solar minimum will be fully going.
Global Alarmists like to babble on about feedback loops, but they never mention the feedback loop of snow reflecting sunlight causing more cooling, causing more snow causing more reflection causing more snow and more cloud which leads to more snow and more reflection and more cooling and more snow, cloud, cooling ...
The reason more cloud forms is because as Earth cools, the latitude of cloud formation moves towards the equator. Latitudes near the poles are short, but at the equator are long, so there's a lot more room for clouds near the equator. Clouds reflect light much more than oceans and plants do, so there's cooling from that too.
At present, water evaporated at the equator has to be carried right up to the poles to land as snow. Nearly all of it falls as rain long before then. When the dew point and snow cover are nearer the equator, it's not far to travel before the water falls out of the air and clouds as snow.
Next northern winter should be worse than the last one, as predicted by me back in October 2007 when I looked back over sun cycles as far as records went and saw that the sun was heading into a grand minimum. I tried explaining it to Neolib [Sier still around] but it's not possible to explain anything to the LLL. They just can't see it until reality smacks them upside the head [whatever that expression means. I'm not sure just where on the head upside is.].
I offered to bet big bucks but he demurred - unwilling to put his money where his keyboard was. Wisely, but tellingly.
Earth is NOT in balance. Humans are rebalancing Earth in the sense of recycling a tiny part of the carbon that has been buried. After 100 years of phenomenal effort with umpty million people even generously offering to PAY to find, extract, process, distribute and burn the carbon [from oil, coal, gas, tars and carbonates] we have only managed to raise CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm. At that rate, it will take 1000s of years to get the level up. The more we fill the air with CO2, the faster it is removed by plants and oceans.
The ocean can take all the carbon dioxide we can ever produce and life in the oceans will dump it to the bottom in kilometres thick sediment such as radiolarian ooze. It will then be millions of years before it is carried to the subduction zones, and fired back up out of volcanoes. Long before then, the cheapskate humans will have refused to buy expensive hydrocarbons and will switch to cheaper ways of life, so CO2 production will fall. Already millions are buying photovoltaics and electric cars. They are also refusing to have children so the population is going to be decimated, again and again.
Mqurice |
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