North American Vaccine Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine

NVX 1.410

-6.6%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: baggo who wrote (8)	10/1/1996 8:12:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	of 82

Brice; The numbers I have seen estimate the US and European markets for DTaP conservatively at $600 million, The addition of polio takes the number to $1 billion plus and the estimates I have seen for the rest of NVX's present pipeline of vaccines indicate that they conservatively address a market in excess of $3 billion additional. It is not inconceivable that NVX could be doing $300 million in sales in '98 time frame. That equates to a price to sales of 3X for '98. Amgen sells for about 9X current sales, Merck sells for about 5X. Of course NVX should be growing at alot faster rate than those companies for the next five years or so. Estimates are in the range of 50%. At this point I am basing my decisions more on the estimated EPS. The estimates I have seen from three of the firms that follow the stock range from :1997 Estimate: $0.64 - $1.25 and for 1998 Estimate: $1.70 - $2.50 Note: All of the estimates are pre Abbott agreement , and all of the firms have said they would be upgrading them at a later date. Of course the estimates also can vary based on when NVX gets the various FDA approvals that are needed. All estimates assume two to three competitors on the market. I am in the stock for the long turn because I think there is really high probability that they get taken out by a large drug company at a price in excess of $60 per share, conceivably with in the next year.. If they are not, that is fine with me because I think that is were the stock will be anyway within the next two years, IMHO. :-}

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