Hi Bob,
You’re welcome. You highlight the important questions. Years back, KVH indicated they were in the google maps cars. My thoughts on this are that the mapping cars and the Waymo cars likely use the same technology but that hardware requirements have evolved over time, as to what is necessary. Both cars need to measure the environment with extreme centimeter level precision. It’s highly likely, the precision requires above mems level gyros, for the primary unit. Whether or not Waymo stuck with KVH, is anyone’s guess. What’s most important is that an arms race is about to unfold. GM, Ford, Tesla, Uber, Lyft, Apple, etc. . .etc will and are responding to this threat. Cost will be important but time to market will matter more. Waymo is far ahead and everyone knows it. The competition needs to act now, to close the gap.
There hasn’t been much detailed reporting in what makes an autonomous vehicle. It’s usually high level and usually mentions GPS and ignores the term inertial navigation because of how complicated it is to explain in a short research note or article. But what I have learned, with a high degree of certainty, is that inertial navigation is a must for L4 and L5, and in most cases, L3. When 10+ thousand of these vehicles hit the road, people are going to be asking what is on the inside and not just pointing out what’s visible on the outside. Analysts will begin to issue reports on the leading component makers. If KVH pulls off a mass market, scalable, precision gyro, on the cheap, they will start popping up as a leading contender in this very important product category.
What’s surprising me most about how the navigation piece of autonomy has been vastly overlooked, is that people don’t realize how big this actually is. 100 million cars, a year, are made worldwide. I would not be surprised to see that number shrink, as younger generations start to abandon car ownership. But the robotics market will begin to appear about 5 years after autonomous cars begin to scale because robots and cars will use virtual the same internal hardware. Untethered robots will need a full 3 axis INS, where a car can get away with 1 or 2 gyros.
My suspicion is that if KVH is in Waymo, they are giving them a great deal to be in a 1st to market product. I would not be surprised at $1k apiece.
Btw, several times recently, job postings at KVH have been posted for 2nd shift. I don’t recall seeing this before. The data isn’t significant enough to suggest its a leading indicator but it’s worth watching to see if more of these postings pop up.
Aw |
