Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: Brooks Jackson	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Re AMZN -- People in my Washington DC neighborhood book club are yakking about how great it is to order books from AMZN. My computer-hating wife can't wait to order from them, she says. The other day my sister in Louisville was busy ordering her first books from AMZN while we were chatting via AOL. If this anecdotal experience is at all representative, then AMZN is building franchise value that hasn't even begun to be factored into the stock price. I'm not long but I would sure think twice before going short, and then think again. I'd love to short YHOO but so far haven't done the DD and lack the guts. YHOO looks to me like a whole 'nother kettle of fish. My theory is that advertising-based web companies will be shaken out big time this year as advertisers start to demand evidence that banner ads work (and I doubt that they do.) However, web-based direct marketers like AMZN just might have a dynamite business model. The potential economies of scale are mind-boggling. Think of YHOO as a TV network whose advertisers may pull out. Think of AMZN as a catalogue merchant with no mailing costs.

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