allen:
I honestly do not know what is the reason. What follows are excerpts from my daily HK reports I receive via the internet. You can see where
the Peregrine bankruptcy & stocks are mentioned.
I am not disagreeing with your view, but I am always glad to show where I obtained information, or if it was simply my own thoughts.
(1) Plans failed to rescue Peregrine. The company finally announced a
liquidation this evening. There was a plan that Zurich Centre Investments,
a unit of insurer and financial services company Zurich Group, would like
to join in by injecting 200 mil. US$ to the company. However due to the
sharp plunge in Indonesian currency, the Group decided to withdraw such
proposal last Friday, and Peregrine lost its last hope.
Clients are allowed to withdraw their holding and transfer to other
brokerage accounts.
With the many bad news flooding on the HK market, most analysts
admitted that any fundamental or technical analysis would be
difficult to predict the real bottom of the HK market. The other
SE Asian stock markets also dropped heavily today. For instantce,
the Singapore market wiped off another 8% today. An examination
on the long term movement of HSI during the last 10 years
suggests that the bottom will be at around 6950, but it will be
entirely determined by the decision of the hedging funds.
Today the red chips and 'H' shares were extremely weak. The red
chip index plunged through the 1000 psychological support today.
There was a market rumor that the funds would like to heavily
stamp down the price of the red chips and H shares, so as to
squeeze Peregrine for dumping its portfolio in an extremely low
price.
------------ From Tuesday Report------------------------
With the liquidation of Peregrine, the red chips and some red shares
were heavily stamped in the morning. Nevertheless some of them
rebounded strongly in the afternoon.
If one looks at the recent financial crisis including the Peregrine
liquidation, the core of the problem is not on Hong Kong, which
fundamentally is sound in economy. Unfortunately, Hong Kong being an
international city would get spillover problems from the region. The most
recent setback on Peregrine stems from Indonesia's weak infrastructure,
which Suharto has promised to reform. The American Chamber of Commerce in
Hong Kong and Fidelity Investments expressed confidence in Hong Kong's
market.
The market drop on Monday was equivalent to HK$260 million, or 9.3% off
the capitalization.
--------------------From today 1/14/98------------------------------
(2) During the last two days with the Peregrine crisis, lot of the
speculative 3rd liners dropped heavily. Some observers suggested that
probably some of the market makers were in financial difficulty, and
had to dump their holding. Nevertheless some market makers also took
this chance to squeeze out the inconfident holders to get more profit.
Some of these shares should need more monitoring. Financial strength,
product sales and also the brand name effect should be observed. For
instance Leading Spirit is the top TV sales in PRC.
Shell Electric (081)
date Bid Ask close prev B-Q. S-Q. High Low vol. amount +/-
97/12/31 1.350 1.410 1.400 1.370 5 2 1 1 1.400 1.350 440K 595K +.030
98/01/02 1.370 1.410 1.370 1.400 1 2 1 0 1.400 1.350 70K 97K -.030
98/01/05 1.360 1.400 1.360 1.370 1 1 1 0 1.360 1.360 106K 144K -.010
98/01/06 1.300 1.320 1.320 1.360 1 0 1 0 1.360 1.320 194K 261K -.040
98/01/07 1.050 1.190 1.050 1.320 1 0 1 1 1.280 1.010 2.1M 2.4M -.270
98/01/08 0.860 0.900 0.900 1.050 5 1 1 0 1.060 0.870 2.0M 1.8M -.150
98/01/09 0.830 0.870 0.870 0.900 2 0 1 1 0.890 0.820 1.3M 1.1M -.030
98/01/12 0.670 0.700 0.680 0.870 1 3 1 0 0.800 0.650 978K 674K -.190
98/01/13 0.530 0.560 0.550 0.680 3 2 1 2 0.700 0.420 17M 9.7M -.130
98/01/14 0.485 0.500 0.500 0.550 3 1 2 3 0.570 0.480 7.8M 4.0M -.050
Innovation (729)
date Bid Ask close prev B-Q. S-Q. High Low vol. amount +/-
97/12/31 1.380 1.390 1.390 1.380 1 1 4 4 1.400 1.380 282K 390K +.010
98/01/02 1.380 1.390 1.390 1.390 1 1 4 6 1.400 1.350 280K 387K 0.0
98/01/05 1.380 1.390 1.380 1.390 1 1 1 1 1.390 1.330 1.4M 1.9M -.010
98/01/06 1.360 1.380 1.380 1.380 2 2 3 1 1.380 1.330 700K 948K 0.0
98/01/07 1.330 1.340 1.330 1.380 2 2 1 1 1.380 1.270 1.2M 1.5M -.050
98/01/08 1.240 1.250 1.250 1.330 1 1 2 1 1.370 1.180 1.9M 2.4M -.080
98/01/09 1.240 1.250 1.250 1.250 1 2 1 0 1.250 1.130 4.4M 5.2M 0.0
98/01/12 1.100 1.120 1.120 1.250 1 1 1 1 1.140 1.020 3.2M 3.4M -.130
98/01/13 1.090 1.100 1.100 1.120 1 1 1 2 1.160 1.000 1.6M 1.7M -.020
98/01/14 0.780 0.780 0.790 1.100 0 0 1 1 1.070 0.680 6.3M 5.5M -.310
No recommendations are expressed or implied. Just reporting where
I had seen the stamping of some issues mentioned.
Doug |
