The reduction in trade (30% by volume and 60% by money value) as a result of the Smoot-Hawley tariff was taken from a foreign newspaper article, but Paul Krugman's rough estimate seems to be in line for Trump tariff: "My back of the envelope calculations suggest that we might be looking at around a 70 percent fall in trade for a wide range of cases. " (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/opinion/thinking-about-a-trade-war-very-wonkish.html)
About its effect (Smoot-Hawley), as it was started after the 1929 market crash and ensuing global depression, on the rise of Hitler is also from that newspaper article which I think makes a good sense. The Smoot-Hawley tariff being USA's extreme selfishness that imparted great harm worldwide economy that eventually led to the Nazi Germany, for Americans it may be easier to deny but the view from outside can be and is very different. this guy (stsimon), who only writes terse offending one liners to other posters with no informative content of his own, may disagree with this but who cares. Secretly Donald Trump wants to become the next Herbert Hoover
From the oped ( Herbert Hoover’s Ghost)
"Protectionism anywhere is invariably bad for local consumers and the global economy, but American protectionism is infinitely worse. It’s a betrayal of the liberal-international order we founded nearly eight decades ago; an invitation to anti-Americanism; a rebuff to our friends; and sometimes (Boston Tea Party, anyone?) a prelude to war."
"But that’s unfair to Hoover, whose soul can now rest easy that he is no longer the worst Republican president ever. In the grip of the Great Depression, the 31st president was under intense political pressure to sign the Tariff Act of 1930, better known as Smoot-Hawley after its Republican authors in Congress. Hoover himself was a somewhat reluctant protectionist. And while 1,028 economists signed a petition imploring the president not to sign, he could not then know that “Smoot-Hawley” would become a byword for economic folly. Between 1930 and 1933, the value of global trade declined from $4.9 billion to $1.8 billion."
"The administration is blowing up the foundations of global economic order with the same mindless glee as a child popping bubble wrap. Canada now intends to retaliate with $12.8 billion worth of its own tariffs. Mexico and the European Union are set to announce retaliatory levies of their own. And these are our friends.
The darker echoes of the 1930s are sounding louder. The shadow of Hoover grows longer. We know how this movie ends. If Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow had a gram of self-respect he’d resign." |
