Peter,
I am a long term investor too. NLV is a significant portion of my long term-speculative portfolio. Long term-speculative makes up just over 10% of my total portfolio.
I have been a holder of GIC/NLV/ future GIC for 2+ years and was lucky enough to catch it at a yearly low when I bought it. I have not added to my holdings since my initial buy. It has been a reasonable performer for me but not great.
Positives--
1. Playing with the "big boys"
MSFT, Sony, TCOMA, CSCO, SUNW, INTC?, C-Cube?
2. IMHO in the right sector for 1998/99- Faster access to internet ("big pipe")/cable TV
3. Player in cable modem arena (see latest release deal with CPU)
Negatives
1. If you build it, will they come? Interactive TV has been a pipedream for a long time. Video-on-demand has been a holy grail for a long time. Will the public buy it?
2. NLV/GIC has given up a significant part of the company to make these deals. Can they make money at $300.00/unit?
3. On a valuation basis, there is no reason to own this company. We are investing in a rosy future for this company.
4. The Sony deal is still pending. This gives Sony enormous leverage. If the deal was cancelled, Sony would barely feel it, NLV would be devestated in the market.
Overall
For a well diversified investor, in a high risk portion of his/her portfolio, call it a Strong Buy.
If considering investing a significant portion of your overall portfolio, call it a Hold/Neutral.
Kind of wishy-washy but I hope it helps,
irthrifty |
