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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.74+1.8%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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Donald Wennerstrom
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (80598)7/26/2018 4:36:19 PM
From: Clear Eyed2 Recommendations   of 95498
 
Additional color on Lam. Company engaged in $1.3bn of share repurchase during the quarter (including net-share settle of options) and reduced debt by $817mm. SO they are putting their money where their mouth is. Hard to believe they'd be doing that if they didn't have confidence that this Q3 slowdown would persist.

With. . .

SK Hynix keeping huge spend flat to higher for the rest of 2018
With Intel increasing capex spend more than 25% in 2018
With Micron increasing spend almost 70% in 2018
And with TSM materially accelerating spend in the 2nd half of 2018

This feels like an airpocket in spend for Q3 for Samsung that's driving the weaker quarter. It's been rumored heavily, but will be interesting to hear what they say on the call. Blue Fin out this AM saying that the issue with Samsung is that they are having internal debates on whether to split 2nd floor cleanroom capacity at Pyeongtaek into DRAM and NAND or just DRAM.

It is hard to believe that Samsung could dramatically cut spend for more than a quarter given the competitive environment and demand drivers. Will be interesting to hear the color on the call.
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