It is a good article. It seems street analysts are cautiously
optimistic about Apple's future. In Q2, they mentioned with 1.3b of
revenue Apple could break even, which matches what I estimated. Well,
it's definitely sure Apple is going to be in the black thru the entire
'98, based on the following rationales:
- In Q2:
* All cloners are gone, the sales from cloners will mainly be flown
into Apple's revenue;
* G3 will be sold worldwide, which could further boost international
revenue, particular in Japan's new fiscal year;
* Apple's not heavily count on consumer quarter (Q1) in recent
years, hence the pattern of selling more in Q1 may not be true;
* Apple's management team has stablized the cost cutting mechanism,
and more understand where the revenue was generated, which will
help Q2 profitability;
- In Q3 & Q4:
* Anderson has mentioned the revenue will start growing, which at
least can generate similar revenue to Q1;
* New OS will be shiped which could generate more incomes;
* Pre-school opening season is the best business period;
From the above future prospects, we can easily estimate that Apple's
earning will be like the following:
Q1 - $0.33 (or 0.37, I prefer the later one);
Q2 - $0.15 (purely speculated, if Apple has 1.4b revenue);
Q3 - $0.33 (I take Anderson's words as the supporting assumption);
Q4 - $0.45 (Pre-school opening quarter, as well as Anderson's
words for revenue increase forecast);
Then, we come up at $1.26 per share net. If I used previously
assumption that in the same computer company group's EPS= 28, then
the correct price now should be around $35.25.
Maybe tomorrow Apple's stock will be in a wide swing, either positive
or negative. But, for a longer term (6-12 months), the reasonable
price will be surfaced out to align with other companies. I really
cheer for Apple's bright, improving future.
Good luck to all.
Phil
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