Jeff, the question of whether the upper BB continues to trend upward can be answered as followed,
If the stock price move sharply intraday for the next few days, the upper BB will further expand upward, creating an even larger channel.
If we have low intraday volatility and the stock price go 5-10% up in say 5 days, the upper BB will shrink and trend lower, creating a smaller channel.
Net, intraday volatility is a component of the calculation. If the overall trend is down, expect the lower BB to keep going lower regardless of whether the upper band (also a function of intraday volatility) to go lower. The reverse is also true.
Net, net, with the channel expansion of the BB, my take on stocks like PTEN and UTI is the chance for them to move close to the upper BB very quickly is very, very poor. However, if they slowly trend up, say 2-3% a day with relatively normal intraday volatility, they will close the channel faster. I guess I can include MDCO, BDI, CDG, RDC, PDS into this group of laggard as well. |
