Big Buck,>Don't forget the fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash from the position decreases/close outs from Oct-Dec. I think they
will perceive the techs as excellent bargains at these prices and invest soon, likely after options expiration on Fri.<
Dorsey Wright 1/14/98 data is here based on supply and demand. The NYSE Bull % continued to drop from 55.80 last week to 54.00 this week. The OTC dropped from 47.00 to 39.90% and the 10WEEK (short term indicator) dropped from 48.29 to 42.77%. The interesting thing is the Bank sector got hit dropping from 86.90% to 70.40%. In August the Bank sector was at the 92% range. (Remember the tendency for a sector which breaks down below 70% is to go down to the 50% range or lower.)
The Savings and Loan Sector dropped from 88.60 to 73.60%, Insurance dropped from 69.60 to 62.70%, finance from 52.30 to 43.10, real estate from 76.50 to 74.30%, wall street from 72.50 to 58.80%, computers from 63.30, semi (bear confirm) from 34.30 to 25.50%, software from 38.80 to 35.30%, electronics from 37.40 to 31.30, gas utilities down from 80.00 to 75.70%, oil down from 35.40 to 27.80%, oil services down from 30.20 to 13.40%, precious metals maintained at 11.60%, electric utilities up from 86.30 to 87.40%.
IMHO, I am glad I am not in the money sensitive sectors like banks, etc. Will these sectors move into the semi sector, the oil or oil services sector? They will go some where. Are we seeing the Asia problems spreading to the banks?
What is the probability that the bank money will move to the semiconductors? Any thoughts? We are at a good buying position in the semiconductor sector (below the 30 percentile range). Time to buy more?
Naturally, this is my personal opined interpretation of the DW Charts. The reader takes the risk of quality upon themself.
Just my opinion.
Paul V
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